Last November Republicans in Florida won a supermajority in the state legislature, swept the state cabinet, and held onto the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat. However, the state will absolutely be a toss-up in the 2012 presidential election, says Democratic strategist and Obama’s 2008 Florida campaign manager Steve Schale. He crunches the numbers and finds that only Colorado has been a closer swing state in recent years:
In fact, if you look at the five Presidential elections since 1992, when Florida first joined the ranks of the highly competitive, the record is essentially 2-2-1. Both parties have a 5-6 point win (Dems 96, GOP 04), both have a 2-3 point win (Dems 08, GOP 92) and we all know what happened in 2000, some of us more acutely than others.
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Since 1992 in Florida, some 30.7 million two-party votes have been cast for President, with the Democratic candidate winning 15,395,501 votes and the Republican candidate winning 15,338,047 votes.
The margin over five cycles: 57,454 (closer than the 06 Governor’s race). In percentage terms, that rounds to a mere 0.19% edge for the Democrats–well inside the margin of a recount. Obviously if you add in the Perot and Nader votes, it is even closer.
Sure, some polls have shown President Obama with a lead in Florida, but early polling is unreliable as a rule. The quick answer to why Florida will be competitive despite the midterm elections is simple — the electorate that votes in midterm elections is different than the electorate that votes in presidential elections.
Luke Johnson reports on Florida for The American Independent.
