In fact, if you look at the five Presidential elections since 1992, when Florida first joined the ranks of the highly competitive, the record is essentially 2-2-1. Both parties have a 5-6 point win (Dems 96, GOP 04), both have a 2-3 point win (Dems 08, GOP 92) and we all know what happened in 2000, some of us more acutely than others.

Sure, some polls have shown President Obama with a lead in Florida, but early polling is unreliable as a rule. The quick answer to why Florida will be competitive despite the midterm elections is simple — the electorate that votes in midterm elections is different than the electorate that votes in presidential elections.

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